A TOUGHER STANCE ON IMMIGRATION DUE TO 'BREXIT' MAY DEEPEN THE HOUSING CRISIS
“With 9% of UK construction workers being EU nationals, a ‘hard-Brexit’ could put upwards pressure on house prices in the longer run”, reports Inside Housing
In research published yesterday, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said:
UK price growth would go up from 6% in 2015 to 6.9% in 2016 before slowing to 2.6% in 2017
If the UK government significantly curbs immigration from 2019 onwards, this could “directly affect household creation and have a negative effect on housing demand in the outer forecast years”
The consequences of the ‘hard-Brexit’ scenario on housing are complicated due to the decrease in construction skilled workers that this could affect
Forecast shows house price growth gradually declining after 2019
Year-on-year price increases to move from 4.6% to 4.4% in 2020 and 3.9% in 2021
The average house price would reach £254,000 in 2021
CEBR economist and author of the report said:
“After the Tory party conference in Birmingham, a so-called ‘hard Brexit’ scenario in which the UK loses access to the single market due to the introduction of immigration restrictions has become more probable.
“The consequences of this are ambiguous: if immigration is reduced drastically, pressures on house prices could ease in certain areas.
“However, as the construction sector relies on immigrant labour skills, the UK might find it difficult to build the required number of houses to address the shortage we currently see in the market.”
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